- Often the first heat wave of a year is a chance to buy early as the typical traders seems overestimate the impact of the heat.
- The overestimate leads to financials being bought up and very responsive to bullish model changes as fast money keeps buying after any increase in the forecast.
- Ultimately the market is usually well prepared for the first heat wave. The gen fleet is in good condition and back from a long outage season, control areas want to show they are prepared an over committee units.
- The sell opportunity usually comes just before delivery and maybe signalled by a high volume low price range day at an extreme price
- These thought do not necessarily transfer to a heat wave later in the season for example September heat