Unusual Storm Will Bring Flash Flood Threat, Cool Conditions to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Including Washington D.C., Philadelphia

https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/unusual-coastal-low-northeast-mid-atlantic-late-july?cm_ven=email&cm_cat=ContentNewsletter&cm_pla=contentTitle0&cm_ite=https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/unusual-coastal-low-northeast-mid-atlantic-late-july

Ring of Fire Weather Pattern

High pressure leads to dangerous heat in the nation’s midsection. Storms rumble along the periphery of the high as depicted by the green shading.

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/ring-of-fire-weather-pattern-dangerous-heat-storms?cm_ven=email&cm_cat=ContentNewsletter&cm_pla=contentPar1&cm_ite=https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/ring-of-fire-weather-pattern-dangerous-heat-storms

Thoughts about the Last Weeks of July 2017

Thoughts about the Next Couple Weeks…

  • Ontario should average high 20 with low volatility, high average HOEP and boring as a research paper on energy emissions
  • Average Temp is impressive over the next few weeks, the IESO will bring the GAS think Tues July 11th
  • If wind shows up with this heat it will drop HOEP as the IESO leaves gas on to protect against forecast errors, ie downside risk with limited upside
  • Remember the MISI might be back at full moving the interface from 800 to 1100ish
  • Think 25 to 29 with no wind and 5 to 8 with 2k of wind, there will be some wind at sometime and for some interval longer then a hour

 

  •  The next two weeks in PJM should look like this week, but the volatility should start.
  • Units have been running flat out for a while now, they got to start breaking soon
  • The mid to high 30s sounds about right with some crazy upside spikes to it
  • Look to buy RT futures in the low 30s to and then dump into a spike
  • Shorts should be in DA, need to have a 4 handle and you also need a solid reason why the ISO messed up the load forecast or dispatch

 

  • MISO… GOD YOUR BORING, mid to high 30
  • Buy low 30s in RT and sell high 30 in DA
  • Deliver MWs to DECO, in the DA its not much worse than PJM_IMO and it closer to home
  • The DART favors high DA at high load levels.

In Summary Jul 17-21, Similar to 24-28 (5×16 7×8 2×16)

HOEP    22@25    -4@0    6@14 (can’t call 2×16)
PJM WH DA    35@39    20@22    28@32
PJM W RT    35@41    20@22    27@34
MISO    35 @ 37    Yawn    ZZZZ

Note:
I am legitimately concerned that if the MISI tie come back to full Ontario will change, congestion might fall at the interties and HOEP may rise. If we get confirmation of this on Monday, we will take corrective actions.

# Forecasting # Late Summer # Low Gas # High Heat

BOOKING RAMP IN MISO: TIMING, BEST PRACTICES, AND STRATEGY

  • Timing

    • MISO Ramp Rules:
      • MISO Ramp is continuously evaluated and availability is posted for tomorrow. This can be viewed in the MISO RSS tool. A limited amount of ramp is available several days out and more will come become available as time passes.
      • During the DA scheduling window a Ramp Reservation Request is only alive until 9:00 AM EST. At this point all Ramp Reservation Requests, that do not have tags, enter the dead status. This is to prevent market participants from hoarding ramp and allow fair access to the MISO Ramp Product.
      • Ramp is being evaluated on a continuous basis and will be awarded in order of submission time of requests within the ramp queue.

    Best Practices

    • Reserve ramp as soon as possible and submit the tag:
      • A best practice for scheduling MISO Ramp is to reserve ramp as early as possible and submit the tag. This is to confirm OPG or OPGET’s ramp reservation and secure a place on the tie line especially in popular hours such as HE 1 and 24.
      • If closer to the DA scheduling deadline you wish to change the prices on the tag:
        1. Book ramp using the “Submit & Queue” button. This will place OPG or OPGET inside the ramp reservation queue and OPG or OPGET will be awarded ramp as it becomes available.
        2. If this ramp is accepted then continue through the tagging process. After the new tag has been accepted withdraw the old tag.
        3. If this ramp has been in the Queue for awhile and ramp availability appears not to be moving, a decision needs to be made. If you are very unhappy with the prices in the current tag withdrawing this tag should free up ramp availability. Assuming you are first in the queue this will cause OPG or OPGET’s ramp reservation to be accepted. If the price change is minor it might be best to leave the tag in and not incur the ramp reservation risk. There is no way to tell the position of OPG or OPGET’s request within the Ramp Reservation Queue.
        4. Once accepted, because one of OPG’s tags was withdrawn, submit a new tag with the revised prices. Repeat this process until all tags are adjusted.
      • Observed long weekend market behavior (Create more of an example out this to bring out the flavor and why this section is included. Like as an example of why we do best practices):
        • Because there is significantly less people scheduling over the long weekend or any weekend it can be difficult to reserve ramp on the day and hours needed. This is due to less movement and scheduling on the tie line. Once the entire ramp availability is used it is generally difficult on a long weekend to reserve more. To avoid this problem it is best to ensure tags are done as early as possible and to always have a ramp queue request waiting for desired hours.

    Strategy

    • Problem solving and crisis management:
      • If the ramp is unavailable for certain hours reserve around those hours. For example over the long weekend ramp is often unavailable for HE 1 and 24, as this is the time most DA traders start and end their tags. Booking HE 2 to 23 could be the solution and then have requests waiting for the remaining 2 hours (HE 1 & 24). This way a majority of the schedule is locked in and only 2 hours are in question.
      • Remember that all transactions into and out of MISO count for the ramp limit room. If OPG or OPGET has tags sourcing or sinking from MISO withdrawing these tags will free up ramp availability. Keep in mind this newly freed ramp is awarded based on queue time in the ramp reservation queue. This means that withdrawing a tag is guaranteed to free up more ramp availability but this new availability might not be awarded to OPG.
      • Another solution could be entering a virtual into MISO and creating a real time tag as the Ramp becomes available. This different position has the same payoff structure as a Day-Ahead tag.

    Summary

    • The best practices when scheduling MISO DA Transactions are:
      1. Start early
      2. Always have a tag in for the hours OPG or OPGET wish to participate in the MISO DA Market
      3. Always have a Ramp Reservation Request in the queue and waiting for desired hours

THE SOIL MOISTURE’S IMPACT ON WEATHER PREDICTION

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

Soil moisture is important to forecasting. It effects both the temperature forecast and precipitation forecast. Let’s first start with the temperature forecast. High soil moisture will produce high evaporation, especially if temperatures warm significantly during the day. This evaporation will produce evaporative cooling. Although the temperature warms during the day, the evaporation does prevent the temperature from getting as warm as it otherwise would have. A good example is comparing Mississippi to Arizona in the summer time (both states are on about the same latitude). Mississippi generally has a high soil moisture content and evapotranspiration while Arizona generally has dry soils and low values of evapotranspiration. High temperatures in southern Arizona average over 100 degrees in the summer while temperatures generally do not rise above 100 in Mississippi (unless a drought reduces soil moisture). The humidity does make it feel more uncomfortable outside though. It is hotter in Arizona, but the humidity in Mississippi can make it feel just as hot in the summer. High soil moisture values will tend to increase the dewpoint. This has a major consequence on forecasted lows. The overnight low under uniform weather conditions will not drop by more than a couple degrees below the evening dewpoint, especially if the dewpoint is above 60 F. Condensation (a warming process) occurs when the temperature tries to drop below the dewpoint at night. Therefore, high dewpoints limit the amount of overnight cooling. If dewpoint are low, such as when a continental high pressure is in place or a location is located in a dry climate (or dry weather pattern), the overnight low will be much cooler than the afternoon high. Since the dewpoint is low, the temperature can continue falling at night without condensation warming the air and limiting the cooling. Rule of thumb: If the dewpoint depression is large during the afternoon, there will be a large temperature range between the high and low temperature.

Soil moisture is also important to precipitation forecasts. High soil moisture increases the likelihood of moisture convergence. A trigger mechanism such as a front or low pressure will not produce precipitation unless there is moisture in place to lift. Moist air rising has a much better chance of producing precipitation than dry air that is rising. High soil moisture continuously evaporates moisture into the air, which helps to supply low level moisture. The best combination is to have moist soils along with moisture being advected from a moisture source such as the Gulf of Mexico into a trigger mechanism. Droughts and Floods can produce a positive feedback loop that can continue the drought or flood. When the soils dry out, there is less moisture for fronts and other trigger mechanism to lift and therefore there is a continuation of less rainfall. When floods occur, the supply of evaporating moisture to the atmosphere is continuous and there is always moisture in place for a trigger mechanism to lift. It takes a dramatic shift in the weather pattern sometimes to end a drought or flood because of this positive feedback loop. There are several ways to infer the soil moisture across a forecast region. One way is the study the 24-hour precipitation charts each day. From these you can determine which locations have wet or dry soils. Some states have mesonets that measure soil moisture directly. Keeping track of the soil moisture can make you both a better temperature and precipitation forecaster.