How much of the world’s electricity is still reliant on coal, oil and gas? Flick the switches to see where the world would go dark without fossil fuels, which countries rely the most on nuclear, and who is using entirely renewable power to keep the lights on.
Thoughts about the Next Couple Weeks…
- Ontario should average high 20 with low volatility, high average HOEP and boring as a research paper on energy emissions
- Average Temp is impressive over the next few weeks, the IESO will bring the GAS think Tues July 11th
- If wind shows up with this heat it will drop HOEP as the IESO leaves gas on to protect against forecast errors, ie downside risk with limited upside
- Remember the MISI might be back at full moving the interface from 800 to 1100ish
- Think 25 to 29 with no wind and 5 to 8 with 2k of wind, there will be some wind at sometime and for some interval longer then a hour
- The next two weeks in PJM should look like this week, but the volatility should start.
- Units have been running flat out for a while now, they got to start breaking soon
- The mid to high 30s sounds about right with some crazy upside spikes to it
- Look to buy RT futures in the low 30s to and then dump into a spike
- Shorts should be in DA, need to have a 4 handle and you also need a solid reason why the ISO messed up the load forecast or dispatch
- MISO… GOD YOUR BORING, mid to high 30
- Buy low 30s in RT and sell high 30 in DA
- Deliver MWs to DECO, in the DA its not much worse than PJM_IMO and it closer to home
- The DART favors high DA at high load levels.
In Summary Jul 17-21, Similar to 24-28 (5×16 7×8 2×16)
HOEP 22@25 -4@0 6@14 (can’t call 2×16)
PJM WH DA 35@39 20@22 28@32
PJM W RT 35@41 20@22 27@34
MISO 35 @ 37 Yawn ZZZZ
I am legitimately concerned that if the MISI tie come back to full Ontario will change, congestion might fall at the interties and HOEP may rise. If we get confirmation of this on Monday, we will take corrective actions.
# Forecasting # Late Summer # Low Gas # High Heat
Utility-Scale Solar Power Plants in California. Gold marks denote PV power plants, while red marks represent solar thermal power plants. Size is proportional to total installed capacity.
Currently July 12’s NYISO DA forecast for Tuesday July 18 includes a 27,201 which should derate ONT-NY tie to 1150 MWs.
The ONT-NY tie at “normal” TTC should be 1400 MW until Aug. 31. due to software limitations as posted by NYISO.
More to follow…
METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY
Soil moisture is important to forecasting. It effects both the temperature forecast and precipitation forecast. Let’s first start with the temperature forecast. High soil moisture will produce high evaporation, especially if temperatures warm significantly during the day. This evaporation will produce evaporative cooling. Although the temperature warms during the day, the evaporation does prevent the temperature from getting as warm as it otherwise would have. A good example is comparing Mississippi to Arizona in the summer time (both states are on about the same latitude). Mississippi generally has a high soil moisture content and evapotranspiration while Arizona generally has dry soils and low values of evapotranspiration. High temperatures in southern Arizona average over 100 degrees in the summer while temperatures generally do not rise above 100 in Mississippi (unless a drought reduces soil moisture). The humidity does make it feel more uncomfortable outside though. It is hotter in Arizona, but the humidity in Mississippi can make it feel just as hot in the summer. High soil moisture values will tend to increase the dewpoint. This has a major consequence on forecasted lows. The overnight low under uniform weather conditions will not drop by more than a couple degrees below the evening dewpoint, especially if the dewpoint is above 60 F. Condensation (a warming process) occurs when the temperature tries to drop below the dewpoint at night. Therefore, high dewpoints limit the amount of overnight cooling. If dewpoint are low, such as when a continental high pressure is in place or a location is located in a dry climate (or dry weather pattern), the overnight low will be much cooler than the afternoon high. Since the dewpoint is low, the temperature can continue falling at night without condensation warming the air and limiting the cooling. Rule of thumb: If the dewpoint depression is large during the afternoon, there will be a large temperature range between the high and low temperature.
Soil moisture is also important to precipitation forecasts. High soil moisture increases the likelihood of moisture convergence. A trigger mechanism such as a front or low pressure will not produce precipitation unless there is moisture in place to lift. Moist air rising has a much better chance of producing precipitation than dry air that is rising. High soil moisture continuously evaporates moisture into the air, which helps to supply low level moisture. The best combination is to have moist soils along with moisture being advected from a moisture source such as the Gulf of Mexico into a trigger mechanism. Droughts and Floods can produce a positive feedback loop that can continue the drought or flood. When the soils dry out, there is less moisture for fronts and other trigger mechanism to lift and therefore there is a continuation of less rainfall. When floods occur, the supply of evaporating moisture to the atmosphere is continuous and there is always moisture in place for a trigger mechanism to lift. It takes a dramatic shift in the weather pattern sometimes to end a drought or flood because of this positive feedback loop. There are several ways to infer the soil moisture across a forecast region. One way is the study the 24-hour precipitation charts each day. From these you can determine which locations have wet or dry soils. Some states have mesonets that measure soil moisture directly. Keeping track of the soil moisture can make you both a better temperature and precipitation forecaster.
A key natural gas trade group released a study Thursday that contends it is not fuel diversity but the presence of “reliability attributes” that policymakers should seek for the good of the grid.
Gas Lobby Goes on Offensive vs. Coal, Nukes
RTO Insider, JUNE 27, 2017